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Week Ahead: Focus on Peru Interest Rate Decision And Mexico, Colombia, Chile CPI

LATAM
  • In Peru, the central bank is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 6.0% next week, the seventh consecutive such move. On the data front, Mexico, Colombia and Chile all release key February CPI inflation data, which will have a bearing on upcoming monetary policy meetings.
    • Mexico will publish gross fixed investment and private consumption data for December on Monday. Gross fixed investment is expected to have risen by 18.4% y/y, vs. 19.2% previously.
    • On Tuesday, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey, while Brazil services and composite PMI data for February will also cross. In Mexico, the Banamex survey of economists will be released.
    • Brazil January IP data are published on Wednesday, alongside February trade and January current account data. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to $5.35bn, from $5.83bn. Argentina January IP will also cross.
    • Mexico CPI inflation is expected to ease to 4.42% y/y in February, from 4.88%, while Colombia Feb CPI inflation is expected to fall to 7.71% y/y, from 8.35%. Chile Feb trade data will also be released. On the monetary policy front, BCRP is widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut, while maintaining a cautious tone.
    • Analysts expect Chile Feb CPI inflation to rise to 4.1% y/y on Friday, from 3.8% previously. This would be the first increase since November 2022.
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