Week Ahead for China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

     SYDNEY (MNI) - BANK OF JAPAN

     There are no public speeches by BOJ board members until Aug. 31, when

Takako Masai speaks to business leaders in Matsuyama City, western Japan. The

BOJ's next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 20-21.

     JAPANESE DATA

     On Monday, the Cabinet Office releases preliminary GDP for April-June. The

MNI median forecasts: +0.7% on quarter (forecast range: +0.5% to +0.9%), or an

annualized +2.6% (range: +2.2% to +3.6%), for the sixth straight q/q growth vs.

+0.3%, or an annualized +1.0% in Q1. Economists expect strong domestic demand --

consumption, business investment and public investment -- to have offset a

temporary slip in external demand.

     On Thursday, the Ministry of Finance releases July trade. The MNI median

forecasts: exports +13.6% on year for the eighth straight y/y rise vs. +9.7% in

June; imports +17.0% on year for the seventh straight y/y rise vs. +15.5% in

June; the trade balance a surplus of Y392.0 billion for the second consecutive

black ink vs. a surplus of Y439.8 billion in June and a surplus of 504.5 billion

in July 2016.

     JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS

     Japanese government bond prices are expected to move in a tight range as

many market participants are taking summer holidays. But the volatility may rise

in thin trading. The BOJ stands ready to contain higher JGB yields in order to

maintain the yield curve that is consistent with the short-term interest rate of

-0.1% and the 10-year bond yield of around zero percent. JGBs are supported by

the BOJ's outright bond purchase operations, expected Wednesday and Friday.

     The 10-year JGB yield is seen moving between 0.055% and 0.075% this week

against the bank's target of around zero. On July 7, it rose to 0.105% for the

highest level since Feb. 3. The Ministry of Finance will auction Y2.3 trillion

of 1-year Treasury discount bills Wednesday and Y2.2 trillion of 5-year bonds

and Y4.4 trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills Thursday.

     CHINA

     On Monday, July retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset

investment data will be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Retail sales growth is expected to slow down to 10.7% year-on-year from 11.0% in

June, according to the median of an MNI survey of 19 economists. Industrial

production is estimated to grow 7.0% compared with 7.6% in June. The

year-to-date growth rate for fixed-asset investment is seen unchanged from

Jan-June's 8.6%.

     Sometime between Monday and Tuesday, the PBOC is due to release data on new

bank lending and money supply growth for July. The M2 money supply growth rate

is projected to have accelerated slightly to 9.5% from the all-time-low rate of

9.4% in June. New loan growth last month is seen slowing to CNY800 billion, only

half the CNY1.54 trillion gain in June, while total social financing likely

increased CNY1.075 trillion, well below the CNY1.78 trillion rise the month

before, according to the median forecast of the MNI survey.

     On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release data

on July housing prices in 70 major cities. The property boom is expected to have

cooled further as recent curbs on the property sector continue to bite. In June,

37 cities out of 70 experienced a slowdown in price growth on a month-on-month

basis, but prices remained strong on a year-on-year basis, with the number of

cities showing faster price growth rising to 47 from 40 the month before.

     AUSTRALIA

     The week is dominated by RBA events but the highlight is wage price data

for Q2, followed by the latest labor force survey.

     Monday begins with a speech by RBA Assistant Governor for financial markets

Christopher Kent at a Moody's Analytics event in Sydney. There will also be Q&A.

     On Tuesday morning is ANZ-Roy Morgan's weekly consumer confidence index

which will get slightly more attention following a surprise fall in Westpac-MI's

monthly consumer sentiment data published last Wednesday. Later Tuesday is the

minutes of the RBA's August board meeting. Interest in the minutes will be less

than usual given the RBA published the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy

following the board meeting and last week Governor Philip Lowe answered more

questions on the economy at the Parliamentary testimony.

     On Wednesday is Westpac-MI's leading index for July, followed by wage price

index for Q2 where MNI median forecast is for 0.5% q/q rise and 1.9% y/y -- the

same pace as Q1. RBA Governor Lowe emphasized the importance of wage growth at

the testimony on Friday given the impact it would have on household spending and

inflation, so this data is now a tier one release. 

     On Thursday is labor force survey for July where MNI median forecast is for

growth of 20,000 jobs but an unchanged participation rate of 65.0 that is

expected to keep jobless rate steady at 5.6%. If the outcome matches forecast,

it would also be in line with the RBA's forecasts for the economy. Later

Thursday is a speech by RBA's Assistant Governor for economics Luci Ellis. The

topic of the speech is "On Lags" and there will also be Q&A.

     RBA

     The minutes of the August board meeting will be published on Tuesday. On

Monday there's speech/Q&A by Assistant Governor Christopher Kent and on Friday

by Assistant Governor Luci Ellis.

     NEW ZEALAND

     It's a light week where the highlight is retail trade survey for Q2 due on

Monday. MNI median forecast is for 1.0% q/q rise, slowing from a 1.5% rise in

Q2. 

     RBNZ

     No major data or event is due from the RBNZ

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com