March 11, 2024 11:34 GMT
Week Ahead in Macro
UK
- There will be two main official domestic releases this week: the labour market report and activity data. We will put out our full labour market preview later today but from the previews that we have read so far, analysts are looking for a tick up in private sector regular AWE of around one tenth (partly due to base effects).
- Looking at monthly activity data the majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the 3-month/3-month change to come in in -0.1% (up from -0.3% in the 3-months to December. On a M/M basis analysts are generally split between +0.1%M/M, +0.2%M/M and +0.3%M/M. The main driver of this is expected to be the index of services.
- Also this week we will receive trade data, RICS house price data and the BOE/Ipsos inflation expectations survey.
- The KPMG / REC report on jobs was released this morning and saw further loosening in the labour market with the headline being that there is the “softest increase in starting salaries for nearly three years.” The report notes that vacancies “declined at the quickest rate since the start of 2021.” The report notes that this was “primarily driven by a fall in permanent staff vacancies” but also notes that “temporary job opportunities fell for the first time in three-and-a-half years, albeit only marginally.” The data was collected between 12-23 February and across the board (on both the quantity and wage side) there were signs of less tightness in the labour market.
253 words