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Well Fargo Expects Cautious Banxico To Stay On Hold At 11.0% This Week

MEXICO
  • Wells Fargo believes lingering inflation concerns and currency deprecation will keep policymakers on hold at 11.00% this week, while they communicate a cautious stance toward monetary easing.
  • At their latest meeting in June, Banxico officials did nod to the possibility of re-starting rate cuts, but since then headline inflation has surprised to the upside. In addition, the Mexican peso remains under pressure following the June election. The political environment in both Mexico and the US is also conducive to a cautious pace of Banxico easing ahead.
  • Locally, concerns around constitutional amendments are front and centre, while the US election later this year could also have ramifications for US-Mexico relations. In that sense, Wells Fargo believes Banxico will deliver another 25bp rate cut once the local and external political arena crystallises further and as the peso eventually stabilises. As of now, they forecast the Banxico policy rate to end 2024 at 10.75%.
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