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Wells Fargo: BoC May Start To Lay Groundwork For Mid-Year Cuts

CANADA
  • Wells Fargo don’t expect the BoC to cut on Wed but "we do believe policymakers may start to lay the initial groundwork for a shift to rate cuts by the middle of this year.”
  • “BoC policymakers have expressed caution lately, but with growth slowing rather quickly and inflation receding, BoC cuts by June are looking like a higher probability event.
  • Wells Fargo note the BoC could be one of the first major G10 central banks to cut this year as “growth and inflation trends in Canada have been less than stellar lately.”
  • “December month GDP data were rather underwhelming. […] While Q4 GDP on an annualized basis held up, more recent indicators of activity suggest a slowdown in economic momentum heading into the early months of 2024.”
  • “On the inflation side, price growth has trended lower. As of January, headline CPI fell to 2.9% Y/Y. While still above the BoC's target for CPI, price trends are heading in the right direction at a sustainable pace.”
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