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Wells Fargo: Factors Deterring Workers Have Eased

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Wells Fargo sees 390k payroll gains in October, a little below consensus, but a pickup from September.

  • They write: "seasonal adjustment effects should not be as severe in October [as in September], and while the factors deterring workers from looking for employment have not disappeared over the past month, many have eased."
  • The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey "showed nearly 700K fewer people not working due to COVID fears compared to the second half of September, while 1.6M fewer individuals report not working due to childcare compared to this time last year." That and other factors (benefits ending, strong wage gains encouraging a return to word) suggests an improvement vs September's job gains.
  • They also expect in-line readings for unemployment rate (4.7%) and avg hourly earnings (0.4%).
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