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A Westpac economist notes that "in the month since August 28th payrolls are down -0.4%. On the first pass you may think that this payrolls update is indicative of a soft print in employment in the October Labour Force Survey. However, if you compare the average of the most recent two weeks to the two-week survey period for the September Labour Force you get a positive 0.1% change. This suggests there is a meaningful upside risk to our current forecast for -170k change in employment in October."