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Free AccessWestpac Lead Index Signalling Below Trend Growth Into 2024
The Westpac leading index fell 0.27% m/m in May to be down 1.09% on a 6-month annualised basis from -0.78% in April. These were the lowest readings since the pandemic-impacted August 2021 and August 2020 respectively. Since the 6-month measure leads detrended activity by 3 to 9 months, then the economy is likely to grow below trend for most of this year and possibly into next.
- May was the 10th consecutive drop in the 6-month measure of the leading index driven by dwelling approvals, the yield spread, higher unemployment expectations and commodity prices.
- Westpac is forecasting 2023 GDP growth at 0.6% revised from 1% and 2024 at 1% from 1.5%. See bulletin here.
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.