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Westpac Lead Index Signalling Below Trend Growth Into 2024

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Westpac leading index fell 0.27% m/m in May to be down 1.09% on a 6-month annualised basis from -0.78% in April. These were the lowest readings since the pandemic-impacted August 2021 and August 2020 respectively. Since the 6-month measure leads detrended activity by 3 to 9 months, then the economy is likely to grow below trend for most of this year and possibly into next.

  • May was the 10th consecutive drop in the 6-month measure of the leading index driven by dwelling approvals, the yield spread, higher unemployment expectations and commodity prices.
  • Westpac is forecasting 2023 GDP growth at 0.6% revised from 1% and 2024 at 1% from 1.5%. See bulletin here.
Australia Westpac LI 6m/6m ann% vs GDP 2q/2q ann%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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