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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The Westpac leading index fell 0.05% m/m in March with the 6-month annualised rate at -0.2% after being flat the previous month. This rate leads detrended growth by 3 to 9 months and so is signalling subdued but positive growth continuing into H2 2024, which the RBA has in its latest forecasts. It expects Q4 growth to be 1.8% y/y after 1.3% in Q2. Westpac expects the Board to be on hold in May.
- Westpac continues to forecast 2024 GDP growth of 1.6% similar to 2023 but below trend at around 2.5% y/y.
- The improvement in the 6-month rate since September has been due to equities, unemployment expectations and commodities in AUD. The latter though fell 5.1% m/m in March and may be at a turning point. The yield spread, US IP and dwelling approvals were all a drag.
Australia Westpac leading index vs GDP %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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