Westpac Revise USD/CNY Forecasts Lower

Westpac note that "net FX settlement versus sales was a small positive for CNY in July. The trade in goods account registered bigger inflows, while inflows into the capital and financial account narrowed. Looking ahead, we expect FX inflows from the goods account to continue to outweigh outflows via the services account, with the gap potentially widening on a slower recovery in service trade vs. goods trade. We also expect continued bond inflows, with supportive rates differentials. We have revised our USD/CNY forecasts mildly lower to CNY6.85 (from CNY6.90) by end-2020, and to CNY6.50 (from CNY6.60) by end-2021. China's monetary policy remains flexible and targeted. The PBoC has injected liquidity via OMOs and an outsized MLF. While these operations eased investor worries over the monetary stance, long-term liquidity injections fell short of the heavy bond supply and NCD maturity through to at least October. We do believe there will be continued liquidity support, but the PBoC will avoid flooding the market. Any downward adjustment in CNY rates upon further liquidity injections will still leave rates differentials favourable for CNY. Headwinds to bilateral trade relations remain a risk factor."