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Westpac Survey Signals Households About To Cut Back

AUSTRALIA DATA

Westpac consumer confidence slumped in February as cost-of-living pressures and rising rates weigh on households. It fell 6.9% m/m to 78.5, its lowest since February and close to historic lows after the RBA hiked again during the survey week and indicated that there was more to come. Spending has been holding up well but may be about to change. The RBA will be monitoring closely to see if consumers follow these responses with a sharp cut to their spending.

  • Mortgage holders in particular reported “intense pressure on finances” and 53% of survey respondents expect mortgage rates to rise by at least another 1pp compared with 48% last month. The February rate increase came during the survey week and sentiment pre-hike was down less than a point but afterwards it had slumped to 74.8.
  • “Family finances vs a year ago” fell 8% m/m to its lowest since the early 1990s recession and it was 14.4% lower for those with a mortgage. The outlook didn’t improve either.
  • “Time to buy a major household item” dived 10.1% and 38% below the historical average. This along with the depressed view of household finances signal that the resilience of consumption may be about to end. “Time to buy a dwelling” was also extremely depressed at a new post-GFC low but house price expectations remain resilient.
  • Very good employment conditions have been helping to keep spending strong and the index is still well below the long-run average but it did deteriorate in February to its worst in 18 months.
Westpac consumer sentiment survey

Source: MNI - Market News/Westpac

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