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What's priced in?

STIR FUTURES
  • There's around 18bp priced in for the May Fed meeting, similar to yesterday. By year-end compared to current rates there are around 42bp of cuts priced in (yesterday saw a 38-48bp range).
  • For the ECB, markets price in 25bp for the May meeting (fully priced if you were to assume no chance of a larger hike). Yesterday saw 25bp priced for May for the first time since intraday on 22 March. There is a peak of 67bp cumulatively priced by the October meeting, little changed overnight and up from around 53bp by September last Thursday.
  • For the BOE there was 21bp priced for the May meeting at yesterday's close, up from around 18.5bp last Thursday. The peak is seen at around 49bp by September after touching 50bp intraday yesterday and up from 38bp at last Thursday's close.

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