Free Trial

What to Watch: Unscheduled Fed Speakers on Mkt Pricing in Hikes

Light on data today, University of Michigan sentiment data at 1000ET unlikely to have same effect as Thursday morning's Jan CPI, higher than anticipated at 0.6%.
  • Markets still reeling from the one-two punch of spike in inflation metric and hawkish Fed speak initially from StL Fed Bullard green-lighting a 50bp hike in March and suggestion of emergency intermeeting moves; later in evening: Richmond Fed Barkin "conceptually open" to 50bp liftoff in March.
  • Networks appear to be scrambling to secure interviews with Fed speakers today, market alert but nobody scheduled for today as yet (Bullard rumored to appear on CNBC Monday).
  • Speculation swirling over intermeeting moves, early end to asset purchases much sooner than later (reminder, NY Fed buy-op schedule will be updated at 1500ET today).
  • Speaking of policy uncertainty as higher/faster rate hikes get priced in for 2022, paradigm shift in Eurodollar futures as inversion has moved from Green Dec'24 to Red Sep'23 with Greens-Golds (EDH4-EDZ6) trading 0.025-0.075 higher this morning -- recovering a portion of Thu's move.
  • Red Sep'23 futures at 97.65 trading 0.005 to 0.150 inverted vs. Greens now.
  • Tsy yield curve inversion yesterday in 7s10s had pair open -2.557 overnight.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.