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What to Watch: Wholesale Trade, Inventories, Geopol Headlines

MARKET INSIGHT

Rates trading weaker for the most part (March 30Y Ultra-Bond, WNM2, marginally higher), curves paring back small portion of steepening since early Monday lows,

2s10s currently at 15.411 -3.811 vs. inverted lvl of -9.531 Sunday evening.

  • Generally quiet on modest volumes (TYM2<365k ahead the NY open), no scheduled Fed speakers and limited second tier economic data at 1000ET:
    • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (2.1%, 2.1%)
    • Wholesale Inventories MoM (4.0%, 0.8%)
  • Markets have been taking geopol headline risk tied to Russia's war in Ukraine in stride over the last week (peace-talks ineffectual amid ongoing military offensives; global sanctions on Russia continue).
  • Look ahead: short week with FI markets closing at 1300ET Thursday, closed for Good Friday ahead Easter Sunday.
    • That said, markets will see economic data of CPI Tuesday (MoM 1.2% est), PPI Wednesday (MoM 1.2% est), Retail Sales Thursday (Adv MoM 0.6%).
    • Tsy auctions $46B 3Y Monday, $34B 10Y re-open Tuesday, $20B 30Y Bond reopen Wednesday.

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