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What to Watch: March CPI

MARKET INSIGHT

Rates trading weaker - off lows to near middle overnight range, decent volumes (TYM2>425k) after buying emerged ahead London crossover. Tsy curves mixed, 2s10s little flatter at 27.340 (-0.097), 5s30s steeper, nearly dis-inverted at -.669 (+.642).

  • Headline data Mar CPI at 0830ET: (Even the White House warning inflation metric likely to beat expectations due to spike in crude):
    • CPI MoM (0.8%, 1.2%); Ex Food and Energy (0.5%, 0.5%)
    • CPI YoY (7.9%, 8.4%); Ex Food and Energy (6.4%, 6.6%)
    • CPI Index NSA (283.716, 287.413)
    • CPI Core Index SA (287.878, 289.188)
  • Fed speakers scheduled:
    • Fed Gov Brainard WSJ live event, no text, moderated Q&A at 1210ET
    • Richmond Fed Barkin, Money Marketeers NY, text and Q&A at 1900ET
  • Tsy auctions: $34B 10Y re-open today, $20B 30Y Bond reopen Wednesday.
  • Look ahead: Key economic data includes PPI Wednesday (MoM 1.2% est), Retail Sales Thursday (Adv MoM 0.6%).
  • FI markets close 1300ET Thursday, closed for Good Friday ahead Easter Sunday.

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