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What to Watch: Post-FOMC Adjustment, Dovish BoE

MARKET INSIGHT
BulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
FI markets weaker but off lows following dovish BOE. Tsys unwind small portion of Wed's post-FOMC front-end lead rally after Fed Chairman Powell poured cold water on chances of 75bp hike in the near term.
  • It's not that the Fed is less hawkish after hiking 50bp and penciling in June for start of QT, it's that the relief rally that followed Chairman Powell's presser was overdone. Short end remains under pressure, pricing in 50bp hikes over the next two meetings with a third in Sep appr 90% priced in.
  • Fed exits blackout tomorrow, raft of Fri speakers includes Williams, Kashkari, Bostic, Daly and of course Bullard.
  • Economic data on tap at 0830ET:
    • Challenger Job Cuts YoY (-30.1%, --)
    • Initial Jobless Claims (180k, 180k)
    • Continuing Claims (1.408M, 1.400M)
    • Nonfarm Productivity (6.6%, -5.3%)
    • Unit Labor Costs (0.9%, 10.0%)
  • Treasury supply:
    • US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET.
  • Geopol risk:Market remains alert for developments on Russia war in Ukraine, knock-on effect to markets. Meanwhile, Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde said she had received assurances from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a potential NATO membership bid in Wed State Dept meeting.
  • Cross-Asset Roundup: Crude stronger (WTI +1.44 at 109.25); Gold stronger (+18.16 at 1899.38; SPX weaker (ESM2 -23.25 at 4272.0).
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FI markets weaker but off lows following dovish BOE. Tsys unwind small portion of Wed's post-FOMC front-end lead rally after Fed Chairman Powell poured cold water on chances of 75bp hike in the near term.
  • It's not that the Fed is less hawkish after hiking 50bp and penciling in June for start of QT, it's that the relief rally that followed Chairman Powell's presser was overdone. Short end remains under pressure, pricing in 50bp hikes over the next two meetings with a third in Sep appr 90% priced in.
  • Fed exits blackout tomorrow, raft of Fri speakers includes Williams, Kashkari, Bostic, Daly and of course Bullard.
  • Economic data on tap at 0830ET:
    • Challenger Job Cuts YoY (-30.1%, --)
    • Initial Jobless Claims (180k, 180k)
    • Continuing Claims (1.408M, 1.400M)
    • Nonfarm Productivity (6.6%, -5.3%)
    • Unit Labor Costs (0.9%, 10.0%)
  • Treasury supply:
    • US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET.
  • Geopol risk:Market remains alert for developments on Russia war in Ukraine, knock-on effect to markets. Meanwhile, Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde said she had received assurances from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a potential NATO membership bid in Wed State Dept meeting.
  • Cross-Asset Roundup: Crude stronger (WTI +1.44 at 109.25); Gold stronger (+18.16 at 1899.38; SPX weaker (ESM2 -23.25 at 4272.0).