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MARKET INSIGHT
  • US STIR futures and USTs have ground lower through the Asian session, with yields now approaching the highs seen yesterday. Markets now price in around 90bp for the Fed's July meeting, with around 210bp of hikes priced in cumulatively for the rest of 2022, with the curve now starting to invert after the December 2022 meeting (rather than after the February 2023 meeting as seen previously).
  • At 13:30BST today we will receive US PPI data as well as weekly claims data. This will be the data highlight of the day.
  • We have already received Swedish inflation data which surprised to the upside and will increase the probability of an intermeeting hike or a 75bp move in September.
  • Politics will remain in focus today with the Italian government confidence vote due. The debate is likely to start around 9:30CET / 8:30BST with a result expected some time after midday CET / 11:00BST, but with no fixed time. Our Policy team reported last night that sources have told them Five Star are leaning towards supporting the government as they fear elections.
  • We will also have the next round of voting in the UK Conservative leadership contest (race to be next PM). The focus will be on where the 43 votes that had been received for Zahawi and Hunt will be redistributed. One of the remaining six candidates will be eliminated today, with the result expected again around 17:00BST.
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