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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • UK politics will be in focus again today with the third round of voting in the Conservative leadership contest. A result is expected around 20:00BST / 21:00CET with Tugendhat the favourite to be eliminated - remember that if any candidate receives 120 votes or more they will automatically enter the runoff of party members. There will also be a vote of no confidence held for the UK government, but it would be surprising if this manages to pass - the results of this are expected around 22:00BST / 23:00CET.
  • BOE's Saunders is expected to speak this morning on monetary policy, too.
  • Italian politics will be in focus but developments are likely to be on the backburner until Wednesday when Draghi is expected to address parliament.
  • It's another big week, particular for the Eurozone and the UK. The main event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday, where a 25bp hike is expected by consensus (with markets pricing around 29bp) and markets hoping for more details on the ECB's anti-fragmentation tool. PMI data on Friday will be closely watched across the Eurozone and UK, and to a lesser extent the US. In addition we will receive UK labour market data (Tuesday), inflation data (Wednesday), consumer confidence data (Friday) and retail sales data (Friday). US data will see housing data and the Philly Fed survey as the highlights.
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