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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Today is likely to be anything but a quiet Friday... the highlight of the morning session will be the release of HICP data across Europe with the highlights being France (7:45BST), Spain (8:00BST), Portugal (9:30BST), Italy/Eurozone aggregate (10:00BST). Yesterday we saw a 4 tenth upside surprise to the German HICP print and the consensus for today's prints are rather stale - so it is likely that markets will be pricing in at least some upside to these prints. We will also be receiving GDP prints from Austria, Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal and the Eurozone aggregate (with the latter also released at 10:00BST alongside the HICP print) - this is in addition to the upside surprise we have already seen for France this morning.
  • Other data this morning will see Swiss retail sales and the KOF indicator, German labour market data and UK consumer credit and mortgage lending data.
  • This afternoon will see a number of important data releases, too. In the US we will have the employment cost index, personal income/ spending data, the monthly PCE deflator, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer and the final reading of Michigan confidence data. In addition, we will receive Canadian monthly GDP data for May.
  • Furthermore, it is the last business day of the month, so we will also likely see some month-end flows. Most of the sell-side FX rebalancing models we have seen suggest that we will see USD selling, but the strength of the signal varies.

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