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What to Watch: Post-Employment/Pre-CPI Price Discovery

MARKET INSIGHT
Modest rebound in Tsy futures on relatively decent summer volumes (TYU2>270k) after last Fri's steep sell-off after U.S. employers added 528,000 workers in July, significantly above market expectations for a slowdown to 250,000 from June's 398,000 pace after revisions, unemployment rate dropped a tenth to 3.5% after flattening out at 3.6% for six months. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, a tenth faster than in June.
  • No economic data Monday, sites on Wednesday's CPI report (MoM 0.2% est vs. 1.3% prior, 8.7% YoY est vs. 9.1% prior).
  • No scheduled Fed speakers today, however, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday there's a case for continuing 75 basis-point rate increases until inflation slows in a meaningful way and she needs "unambiguous evidence" before marking down her price forecasts. SF Fed Daly on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday came across Hawkish, suggesting 50 bps in September isnt the only option on the table.
  • Treasury auctions up at 1130ET: US Tsy $54B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions.
  • Gradual pick-up in corporate issuance as latest earning cycle winds down, appr $25B estimated high-grade supply for week, BNP Paribas and AIIB on tap Mon.
  • Cross asset: Stocks marginally firmer (SPX eminis +17.25 at 4164.00) earnings resume; Spot Gold firmer at 1781.84 +6.34; Crude weaker (WTI -1.34 at 87.67).
  • Geo-pol: Keeping eye on China as they announce extended military exercises around Taiwan, underscoring tensions after House Speaker Pelosi visit last week.
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Modest rebound in Tsy futures on relatively decent summer volumes (TYU2>270k) after last Fri's steep sell-off after U.S. employers added 528,000 workers in July, significantly above market expectations for a slowdown to 250,000 from June's 398,000 pace after revisions, unemployment rate dropped a tenth to 3.5% after flattening out at 3.6% for six months. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, a tenth faster than in June.
  • No economic data Monday, sites on Wednesday's CPI report (MoM 0.2% est vs. 1.3% prior, 8.7% YoY est vs. 9.1% prior).
  • No scheduled Fed speakers today, however, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday there's a case for continuing 75 basis-point rate increases until inflation slows in a meaningful way and she needs "unambiguous evidence" before marking down her price forecasts. SF Fed Daly on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday came across Hawkish, suggesting 50 bps in September isnt the only option on the table.
  • Treasury auctions up at 1130ET: US Tsy $54B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions.
  • Gradual pick-up in corporate issuance as latest earning cycle winds down, appr $25B estimated high-grade supply for week, BNP Paribas and AIIB on tap Mon.
  • Cross asset: Stocks marginally firmer (SPX eminis +17.25 at 4164.00) earnings resume; Spot Gold firmer at 1781.84 +6.34; Crude weaker (WTI -1.34 at 87.67).
  • Geo-pol: Keeping eye on China as they announce extended military exercises around Taiwan, underscoring tensions after House Speaker Pelosi visit last week.