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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • The main focus of the week ahead will be the ECB meeting on Thursday where the focus is on whether the ECB hikes 50bp or 75bp (or potentially even more). Markets were pricing in around 66bp for this week's meeting at Friday's close, up around 3bp on the week. Pricing for year-end ended last week at 168bp (up around 20bp last week) while pricing one-year ahead ended the week down around 4bp at 215bp. The magnitude of this week's hike is likely to determine the slope of the curve, particularly for the near-dated meetings, as well as moving the terminal rate.
  • European gas prices are being closely watched this morning after the Nord Stream pipeline remained indefinitely closed and are up around 30% on the open, but are still some way off the highs seen over the past two weeks. The EU is holding an emergency summit on Friday to discuss an EU-wide plan to deal with the high gas prices this winter - and this combined with the better storage levels is likely stopping gas prices reach such extremes. Nevertheless, Bund prices are under some pressure this morning following the open of the European gas market.
  • Focusing more on today, we have services PMI data with first prints from Spain and Italy and final prints from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK.
  • Today will also see the announcement of the new Prime Minister. Betting markets see a 98% probability that Liz Truss has defeated Rishi Sunak in the run-off. The result will be announced shortly after 12:30BST. Focus in UK markets (and in UK politics) will then turn to which measures Truss will announce to deal with cost of living issues - with the weekend papers suggesting one possible measure could be freezing energy bills at current levels (rather than increasing by the 80% announced by the Ofgem price cap change.

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