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SONIA FIX - 09/11/22

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US FIX - 09/11/22

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EURCHF test yesterday's low

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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • The market is continuing to look ahead to Thursday's US CPI print but there is also focus on today's US midterm elections. There is an 85-90% chance implied by bookmakers of Democrats losing full control with Republicans gaining one or both houses. Furthermore, there is little discernable pattern in post-midterm asset moves: equities tend to rise in the aftermath of midterms no matter the result (though that is their natural long-term direction anyway); USD and UST returns are more mixed. In this regard though, the more interesting take from a risk-reward perspective is for a strong bearish Treasuries, bullish dollar move in the event the Democrats do the unlikely and win both the Senate and the House. We look ahead to the midterms from a market perspective here and our Political Risk Team's preview is available here.
  • We will hear from BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill twice today – this morning (at 9:00GMT / 10:00CET) at the UBS conference on "global monetary policy challenges" and then again at 16:00GMT / 17:00CET ahead of the Lords Economic Affairs Committee (where he will testify on labour supply). Pill's views will be closely watched. He has yet to dissent since joining the MPC in September 2021 but has always been viewed on the hawkish side of the swing voters. It is likely that for a further 75bp hike in December, Pill would need to be on side.
  • This afternoon we will hear from Riksbank's Anna Breman on the global economic situation at 13:00GMT / 14:00CET and from ECB's Wunsch at 17:30GMT / 18:30CET.
  • Today will also see heavy supply in Europe with the 3.75% Jan-38 gilt syndication and auctions from the Netherlands, Austria and Germany.
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  • The market is continuing to look ahead to Thursday's US CPI print but there is also focus on today's US midterm elections. There is an 85-90% chance implied by bookmakers of Democrats losing full control with Republicans gaining one or both houses. Furthermore, there is little discernable pattern in post-midterm asset moves: equities tend to rise in the aftermath of midterms no matter the result (though that is their natural long-term direction anyway); USD and UST returns are more mixed. In this regard though, the more interesting take from a risk-reward perspective is for a strong bearish Treasuries, bullish dollar move in the event the Democrats do the unlikely and win both the Senate and the House. We look ahead to the midterms from a market perspective here and our Political Risk Team's preview is available here.
  • We will hear from BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill twice today – this morning (at 9:00GMT / 10:00CET) at the UBS conference on "global monetary policy challenges" and then again at 16:00GMT / 17:00CET ahead of the Lords Economic Affairs Committee (where he will testify on labour supply). Pill's views will be closely watched. He has yet to dissent since joining the MPC in September 2021 but has always been viewed on the hawkish side of the swing voters. It is likely that for a further 75bp hike in December, Pill would need to be on side.
  • This afternoon we will hear from Riksbank's Anna Breman on the global economic situation at 13:00GMT / 14:00CET and from ECB's Wunsch at 17:30GMT / 18:30CET.
  • Today will also see heavy supply in Europe with the 3.75% Jan-38 gilt syndication and auctions from the Netherlands, Austria and Germany.