What to watch

There have been further positive headlines overnight surrounding reopenings in China, which have helped the Hang Seng in particular, but European and US equity futures remain mixed with Eurodollar, UST and Bund futures all a little lower on the day.

• This morning will see the release of the Minutes of the Riksbank's November meeting, in which rates were raised 75bp. According to our calculations the rate path projections saw a 75% probability of a 25bp hike in February (25% probability of a 50bp hike) with a 10% probability of a further 25bp hike in April before rates remain on hold. However, there will be differing views on the Executive Board about the future path of rates, we think, with some members likely to be tilting more towards a 50bp hike in February than the rate path would suggest. We also note that this was Ingves' last meeting as Governor, and we will have two new Executive Board members at the next meeting in February.
• Elsewhere today the data highlight will be this afternoon's US ISM services print while we will receive the final prints of European, UK and US services PMI, European retail sales data and US factory orders / final print of durable goods.
• The week ahead will see both the RBA and the BoC meet. For the RBA, analysts widely expect a 25bp hike bringing the total tightening for the year to 300bp and the cash rate to 3.1%. This would be around the Board's estimates of neutral. Markets price around 19bp at writing. (For our full RBA preview see here). For the BoC, analysts are split between a 25bp and a 50bp hike with markets pricing around 32bp.