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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • The focus in the morning session will be on flash PMI data in France, Germany, the Eurozone and UK. All are expected to see small upticks but the focus is likely to be more on the subcomponents than the headline indices at this point. In particular the prices components will be key. PMI data is less market moving than it has been at other points in the cycle, but still has the potential to set the tone for the session. The US PMI data this afternoon is occasionally market moving so is worth keeping an eye on, too.
  • Following the PMI data we will also receive the German ZEW survey. We tend to place less weight on this than the PMI or IFO data given its sensitivity to financial market moves.
  • In the afternoon we will receive Canadian CPI. The median Bloomberg estimate sees headline easing 0.2pts to 6.1% Y/Y although 2 of 13 see it holding steady. The bulk of estimates between 6.0-6.3% Y/Y are relatively tight compared to recent months although there is one standout forecast of 5.5% (S&P Global).
  • Elsewhere the focus will be on speeches from Putin (beginning 9:00GMT / 10:00CET) and Biden in Poland (speech scheduled for 16:30GMT / 17:30CET).
  • We will also hear from the Riksbank's Floden and Ohlsson. Floden said in the Minutes ahead of yesterday's CPI print that the April decision was between 25bp and 50bp (there's still a lot more data to come so he's expected to keep that tone). Ohlsson is probably the most hawkish Executive Board member so it will be interesting to see if he gives any more clarity on his views of future policy.
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