MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • The main event of the European morning session will be the final print of Eurozone HICP. Consensus looks for a one tenth increase from 8.5%Y/Y to 8.6%Y/Y, we look for upside risks due to our calculations of the estimate that Eurostat used for Germany in the flash print. Markets currently price in 49bp for March (the ECB has explicitly signaled 50bp) with 74bp cumulatively by May, 103bp by June and a peak of just under 125bp by October. The main risk from a higher print in our view would a steeper curve through the May-October period.
  • From a UK perspective the highlight today will be a speech by Catherine Mann at the Resolution Foundation entitled "The results of rising rates: Expectations, lags and the transmission of monetary policy." One of the sub-questions that Mann is due to cover is "If a slower transmission means a longer period of above target inflation, does this affect inflation expectations?" There has been much focus on the speed of the transmission mechanism and inflation expectations from the wider MPC recently, and even though Mann is still seen as the most hawkish member (despite dropping down to voting for a 50bp hike in February) her views on this topic and others will still be closely watched by the market. Markets currently look for 24bp in March, a cumulative 43bp by May and a peak cumulative 68bp by September.
  • We will also hear from Riksbank's Floden, but we have already heard from him in both the Minutes on Monday and post-CPI on Tuesday.
  • Looking ahead to this afternoon, we have the second print of Q4 US GDP (and core PCE) as well as speeches from Fed's Bostic and ECB's de Cos.
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