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What to Watch: Anticipating Second Consecutive 25Bp Hike From FOMC

US TSYS

Today's main focus is on the next FOMC policy announcement and Summary of Economic Projections at 1400ET, with a second consecutive 25bp hike widely anticipated. Fed Chairman Powell press conference follows at 1430ET.

  • Meanwhile, Treasury futures continue to extend lows into the NY open, mirroring a sell-off in short end Gilts after higher than expected UK inflation data overnight.
  • Tsy yield curves bear flattening (2s10s -4.440 at -60.780) with short end underperforming, 2Y futures marking 102-29.75 low, 2Y yield taps 4.2544% high (March 15 levels).
  • Front month 10Y futures through initial support (114-01.5, March 17 low) at 113-27.5, puts focus on firmer support at 113-13, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal.
  • On the flipside, a move higher higher would once again refocus attention on the key resistance zone between 116-24, Monday’s high and 116-28+, the Jan 19 high. This zone is a bull trigger.
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