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What to Watch: Bank Run Jitters, CPI Data

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  • Fixed income markets are scaling back from the explosive surge in the front end despite the ongoing banking sector crisis. Global rates gapped higher overnight after headlines flagged "material weakness" in financial reporting surrounding Credit Suisse - the bid reversed amid questions over how much the CS news has already been absorbed by markets. Latest from CS CEO: "SAYS FIRM SAW CLIENT INFLOWS ON MONDAY".
  • Short end Eurodollar futures extending lows at the moment: Sep'23-Mar'24 trading -0.315 to -0.360 lower, SOFR Jun'23-Mar'24 trading -0.200-0.355.
  • Despite the reversal, markets anticipating less hawkish policy moves from the Fed, with several dealers calling for no hike at all next week (GS, NatWest, Wells Fargo and Barclays) while Nomura is the first to reverse their call from a 50bp hike to 25bp cut in the aftermath of Silicone Valley Banks collapse.
  • Focus on upcoming CPI data at 0830ET: Core CPI inflation is seen holding a 0.4% M/M clip for the third month running in February. It is however expected to have been boosted by a bounce in used car prices rather than more broad-based pressure, especially in light of a sizeable easing in supply chain pressures.
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  • Fixed income markets are scaling back from the explosive surge in the front end despite the ongoing banking sector crisis. Global rates gapped higher overnight after headlines flagged "material weakness" in financial reporting surrounding Credit Suisse - the bid reversed amid questions over how much the CS news has already been absorbed by markets. Latest from CS CEO: "SAYS FIRM SAW CLIENT INFLOWS ON MONDAY".
  • Short end Eurodollar futures extending lows at the moment: Sep'23-Mar'24 trading -0.315 to -0.360 lower, SOFR Jun'23-Mar'24 trading -0.200-0.355.
  • Despite the reversal, markets anticipating less hawkish policy moves from the Fed, with several dealers calling for no hike at all next week (GS, NatWest, Wells Fargo and Barclays) while Nomura is the first to reverse their call from a 50bp hike to 25bp cut in the aftermath of Silicone Valley Banks collapse.
  • Focus on upcoming CPI data at 0830ET: Core CPI inflation is seen holding a 0.4% M/M clip for the third month running in February. It is however expected to have been boosted by a bounce in used car prices rather than more broad-based pressure, especially in light of a sizeable easing in supply chain pressures.