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Uptrend Intact

US TSY OPTIONS

10Y Put Calendar Spd

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Trend Needle Points North

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Opening A Busy Week With Mostly Downside

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What to Watch: Oct CPI, Fed Speakers

US TSYS

Tsys firmer, near middle overnight range on moderate volumes (TYZ2>380k), Bonds leading as curves pare some of late Wed's late steepening moves (2s10s -2.751 at -52.098).

  • Main focus on CPI data for Oct as well as weekly claims at 0830ET (prior, est) with consensus est's underestimated in five of last six reads:
    • CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.6%); YoY (8.2%, 7.9%)
    • CPI ex-food and energy MoM (0.6%, 0.5%); YoY (6.6%, 6.5%)
    • CPI Index NSA (296.808, 298.488)
    • CPI Core Index SA (298.660, 300.094)
    • Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-3.0%, --)
    • Initial Jobless Claims (217k, 220k)
    • Continuing Claims (1.485k, 1.487k)
  • Multiple Fed speakers stand ready to rebut:
    • Philly Fed Harker eco-outlook, text, Q&A at 0900ET
    • Dallas Fed Logan on energy & economy conf, text 0935ET
    • SF Fed Daly fireside chat, no text 1100ET
    • Cleveland Fed Mester eco-outlook, Q&A 1230ET
    • KC Fed George economy cof at Dallas Fed 1330ET
  • US Tsy auctions: $65B 4W, $55B 8W bills at 1130ET, $21B 30Y Bonds (912810TL2) at 1300ET.
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Tsys firmer, near middle overnight range on moderate volumes (TYZ2>380k), Bonds leading as curves pare some of late Wed's late steepening moves (2s10s -2.751 at -52.098).

  • Main focus on CPI data for Oct as well as weekly claims at 0830ET (prior, est) with consensus est's underestimated in five of last six reads:
    • CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.6%); YoY (8.2%, 7.9%)
    • CPI ex-food and energy MoM (0.6%, 0.5%); YoY (6.6%, 6.5%)
    • CPI Index NSA (296.808, 298.488)
    • CPI Core Index SA (298.660, 300.094)
    • Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-3.0%, --)
    • Initial Jobless Claims (217k, 220k)
    • Continuing Claims (1.485k, 1.487k)
  • Multiple Fed speakers stand ready to rebut:
    • Philly Fed Harker eco-outlook, text, Q&A at 0900ET
    • Dallas Fed Logan on energy & economy conf, text 0935ET
    • SF Fed Daly fireside chat, no text 1100ET
    • Cleveland Fed Mester eco-outlook, Q&A 1230ET
    • KC Fed George economy cof at Dallas Fed 1330ET
  • US Tsy auctions: $65B 4W, $55B 8W bills at 1130ET, $21B 30Y Bonds (912810TL2) at 1300ET.