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What to Watch: PCE, ECI, Fed SVB Supervision Report

US TSYS
  • Ahead next Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement where markets are leaning toward another 25bp hike, this morning's focus is on core PCE deflator and Q1 ECI release at 0830ET for the latest clues on inflation outlook.
  • Deutsche Bank economists said "given that some of the categories in the PPI came in softer than their CPI counterparts, namely airfares, we expect core PCE (+0.3% vs. + 0.3%) to come in about a tenth below core CPI."
  • Friday's data continues with MNIs Chicago PMI at 0945ET, followed by UofM sentiment at 1000ET and Kansas City Fed Services Activity at 1100ET.
  • While the Federal Reserve remains in policy blackout through May 4, the Fed is expected to release a report on Silicone Valley Bank supervision at 1100ET.

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