What Would Netanyahu's Ouster Mean For MidEast?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the prospect of being ousted after 12 years in office in a development that would not only have significant implications for Israeli domestic politics, but also the wider Middle East region.

• Iran and the Nuclear Deal: There are few bigger hawks in Israeli politics on the Iranian regime and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the Iran nuclear deal) than Benjamin Netanyahu. Should he no longer lead the Israeli gov't, the Israeli rhetoric and potential action towards Iran on the prospect of its re-compliance with the JCPoA and the mooted US re-signing of the deal would likely be far less aggressive than with Netanyahu in charge. Netanyahu has consistently sought to block the nuclear deal, stating that it provides a path for Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Prospective new PM, Naftali Bennett, would likely be more focused on keeping his raucous coalition together (see 'End Of An Era Approaches As Opposition Close To Ousting Netanyahu').
• US/Israeli Relations: Amidst the violence in Gaza in May, it became clear that the Biden administration came into office with little in the way of an official Israel policy beyond steering official US policy back towards a 2-state solution rather than the avowedly pro-Israel stance of former President Donald Trump. The inclusion of centrists such as Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid (the largest party in the coalition) and the centre-left Labor Party could result in an improvement in relations between Israel and Democrats both in the administration and in Congress. Lapid is due to serve as foreign minister, allowing him to espouse a more moderate viewpoint when talking to US representatives than might be the case with Bennett.
• Israeli-Arab Relations: There has been very little movement on the prospective normalisation of relations between Israel and other Arab nations (notably Saudi Arabia) in the months since US President Donald Trump left office. While Israel and Saudi Arabia have no official dialogue, Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman both clearly have a similar interest in curtailing Iranian power in the region. With Netanyahu gone and the Israeli gov't more focused domestically, it could leave Riyadh without another staunch anti-Iran foreign policy actor in the region.