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Where is GDP relative to pre-Covid levels?

UK DATA
  • Today's quarterly GDP data shows that in Q3-21 the economy was 1.5% below the Q4-19 peak.
  • On a back of the envelope calculation, we will compare that to the monthly series.
  • The ONS's latest monthly data publication (for October) estimated that October 2021 was 0.5% below the pre-Covid level.
  • The pre-Covid level is seen in February 2020. Note that February 2020 was not the peak due to weakness in the UK economy immediately prior to Covid.
  • Using the indicative monthly series published alongside the quarterly GDP data today, September 2021's value was 99.5 whereas February 2020 was 99.9. This indicates that GDP in September 2021 was 0.4% lower than February 2020.
  • If we assume that GDP grew 0.1%M/M in October, we can assume that we are now roughly 0.3% below the pre-Covid level based on monthly data.
  • Of course this is a very rough calculation, but it looks likely that monthly data is closer to the pre-Covid level than the 0.5% estimate in the last official publication.
  • November GDP is not due for release until 14 January.
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