While markets seem buoyant on rumours of.........>

UK: While markets seem buoyant on rumours of movement towards a Brexit deal,

there remain major obstacles. No more so than in the UK parliament:

- In addition to DUP support being required (certainly not a given), there are a

number of politically opposed camps of MPs whose support will be required.

- Former Tories who lost whip over Benn Act (e.g. Hammond, Gauke, Rudd); most

want to support a soft Brexit deal, but could prove reluctant if they believe

deal now could lead to no-deal exit after transition period at end-2020.

- ERG 'Spartans' (e.g. Baker, Francois); have shown soft signals of supporting a

deal, but could be turned against if it is rejected by the DUP or if it is seen

as tying the UK in too closely to the EU, no matter the outcome of FTA

negotiations during a transition period. 

- Labour leavers (e.g. Kinnock, Snell, Flint); perhaps the most difficult of the

groups to gauge support for a deal. Have signalled they could back a deal, but

may demand a confirmatory referendum.

- A large number of MPs from all these groups will have to back a deal if it is

to pass, given the gov'ts lack of a majority.