Won Outperforms, INR & IDR Laggards

Most USD/Asia pairs are tracking lower, in line with high beta FX in the G10 space. The won has been the standout, while INR and to a lesser extent, IDR, have been laggards. Still to come today is Indian services and composite PMI prints, also due is Taiwan inflation data. Tomorrow delivers, China FX reserves, South Korea current account and Taiwan trade figures.

• USD/CNH got just below 7.0250, before buying interest emerged, we were last at 7.0350, in line with the USD retracing some session losses against the majors.
• The won has been the standout, up 1% in the NDF space. We have tested below 1400 yet (last 1401). Local equities are up more the 1%, while offshore investors have added $159.7mn in local shares. September FX reserves fell sharply, but as a proportion of imports and short term external debt, remain below 2008 highs.
• TWD is also higher. USD/TWD is back to 31.40 in the 1 month NDF. Onshore equities are higher, but not to the same degree as the Kospi. Inflation figures print a little latter but should remain benign.
• USD/INR is holding above 81.60, slightly up on closing levels from Tuesday (yesterday was a local holiday). The bump in crude prices likely weighing on relative performance with the rest of the region.
• Spot USD/THB is down 0.50% versus yesterday's close, last at 37.22. The baht is the second-best performer within the region behind the won. This looks to be more due to regional sentiment rather than positive domestic news.
• USD/IDR is sitting at unchanged levels from a spot standpoint, last 15193. Whilst higher commodity prices are supportive for the rupiah, Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium (last 149.9bp) remains elevated, operating close to recent cyclical highs of 163.7/164.4bp.
• Spot USD/MYR trades flat at MYR4.6305 after moving away from multi-decade highs on Wednesday. Politics takes centre stage in Malaysia, with PM Ismail Sabri set to attend an audience with the King this afternoon before the tabling of Budget 2023 scheduled for Friday.