Won Rebound Continues, Muted Gains Elsewhere, BI Decision Later Today

USD/Asia pairs are lower, for the most part, but outside of the won, gains have trailed moves seen in the G10 space today. PHP and IDR have also struggled against the USD. Still to come is the BI decision, where +25bps is expected, although some forecasters see risks of a +50bps move (see our full preview here). Tomorrow the main focus is likely to rest on the November Singapore CPI print.

• USD/CNH continues to track recent ranges. We were last just above 6.9800, down only slightly from opening levels, despite a -0.30% loss in USD FX indices. The CNY fixing bias was close to neutral today.
• The won continues to outperform. The 1 month USD/KRW NDF hit fresh multi-month lows at 1272, before edging back to 1273/74 currently. The firmer yen (+0.50% for the session), coupled with the strong equity tone are supports. The NPS's increased hedging of overseas assets (from 0 to 10%) is also likely to be an exogenous positive.
• USD/INR continues to track recent ranges, albeit down from recent highs above 82.80. The pair was last at 82.70, still underperforming the broader USD pull back. The RBI minutes, released late yesterday, are consistent with the tightening cycle extending into 2023. Given recent inflation downside surprises the case could be made though for a shift back to 25bps moves (compared with the recent 35/50bps moves).
• USD/IDR spot is not drifting too far away from the 15600 level. Today’s BI meeting is the main focus point, with a 50bps surprise hike potentially needed to see firmer rupiah gains. In the cross asset space, net equity outflows were just over $100mn yesterday, while palm oil prices are flatlining.
• USD/PHP is struggling to see fresh downside sub 55.10. The pair was last around 55.11, while the simple 200 day MA comes in at 55.146. Presumably if we can close below this level at the end of this week it will present a positive technical backdrop for the peso.