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​Won Still Catching Up With Firmer Equity Trend ​

KRW

1 month USD/KRW got sub 1390 overnight, before finishing the NY session just under 1393. The won benefited from USD weakness against the majors, along with a firmer equity tone. It was also a noticeable outperformer compared to weaker CNH trend. Note onshore spot ended yesterday at 1401.35.

  • The won continues to play catch up with the improved local equity market trend, see the chart below (note the Kospi is inverted on the chart).
  • The backdrop suggests we can see further gains today, given overnight tech gains (SOX +2.18%, MSCI IT +1.60%), while yesterday offshore investors added a further $142.4mn to local stocks (the Kospi added +1% for the session).
  • For the data calendar, we have the current account and goods balance data for September due shortly. There is no consensus estimate, but negative prints on both accounts have been a headwind for the won during this year's negative terms of trade backdrop.
  • Finally, insurer Heungkuk Life has stated it will exercise a call option on its perpetual note, reversing last week's decision to delay early prepayment. This move had caused stress in South Korean credit markets.

Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month NDF & Kospi (Inverted) Trends

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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