Yen Outperforms Broader USD Gains, Wages & Household Spending Data In Focus Today

USD/JPY briefly touched fresh highs back to Nov last year in the US session (hitting 148.89), but we track around 148.70 in early Asia Pac trade. Yen lost a modest ~0.20% for Monday's session, the second best performer in a relative sense in the G10 space. Monday dips towards the 148.30 region were supported.

• Monday's high has resulted in a print above key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high. A clear break of 148.80 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December and open 149.16, a Fibonacci retracement point. Scope would also be seen for a climb towards 149.75, the Nov 22 high. Key short-term support lies at 145.90, the Feb 1 low.
• Yen outperformed the broader USD gains, +0.40% for the BBDXY, +0.5% for the DXY, even as US yields continued to recover strongly. The nominal 10yr up +14bps to 4.16%. Carry over weakness after Fed Chairman Powell's 60 Minutes interview on Sunday underscored a more cautious view re: rate cuts, was a key driver of sentiment. Better ISM services data helped the move as well.
• The slightly weaker US equity tone likely weighed on yen cross demand and thereby capped USD/JPY to a degree.
• Locally the focus will be on Dec wages and household spending data, out this morning. Labor and real cash earnings are expected to improve versus Nov outcomes (+1.4% for nominal, from +0.7% and to -1.5% real from -2.5%). Also out is scheduled full-time pay and cash earnings on same sample base in y/y terms. Household spending is also due.
• Sustained wages growth is a key focus point for the authorities and the BOJ. Some of the key dates around potential wage deals are highlighted in this BBG piece.
• Finally, note the following option expiries for NY cut later: Y147.00-20($1.3bln), Y148.25($557mln), Y148.50($641mln), Y148.70-75($786mln), Y149.10($658mln).