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Yield Curves Off Lows, Bonds Weaker

US TSYS

Tsy yield curves have rebounded with Bond futures near lows after the bell, short end rates pare losses: Tsy 2s10s currently -15.988 -57.138, approximately 20bp off session lows.

  • Little react to Feb CPI data: Core services ex OER and rent accelerate from 0.36 to 0.50% M/M, highest since September. 0.45% M/M if exclude total rent of shelter for same trend, fastest since Sep.
  • Front-month 2Y note trading 103-00 (-13.12), 2Y yield at 4.2253% vs. 3.8367% overnight low (mid-Sep territory) as banking crisis concerns debatably moderated somewhat.
  • Implied volatility drifting lower despite skittishness toward any contagion related headlines involving banks, however. Global rates gapped higher overnight after headlines flagged "material weakness" in financial reporting surrounding Credit Suisse - the bid reversed amid questions over how much the CS news has already been absorbed by markets. Latest from CS CEO: "SAYS FIRM SAW CLIENT INFLOWS ON MONDAY".
  • Barring additional bank tied headline risk, next focus is on Wednesday's PPI data for February: MoM (0.7%, 0.3%); YoY (6.0%, 5.4%), Retail Sales Advance MoM (3.0%, -0.4%) and TIC flows in the afternoon.

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