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Yields Lift Slightly With Markets Primed For Powell (and Less So JOLTS)

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields are 0.5-1.5bp higher today, pulling further off the decline seen after the US ISM services miss but still well within yesterday’s range. UK fiscal speculation and Chinese easing expectations have helped set the early narrative.
  • Attention now shifts to Powell’s semi-annual testimony, with data interest from JOLTS plus some spillover potential from the BoC decision.
  • TYM4 holds near the bottom of narrow ranges at 111-04 (- 05+) with cumulative volumes slightly below recent starts of sessions at 280k. Yesterday’s high of 111-15 cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA of 111-06, which if it holds would highlight a bullish reversal that could open 111-27 initially (50% retrace of Feb 1-23 bear leg).
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), ADP employment Feb (0815ET), JOLTS report Jan (1000ET, Wholesale sales/inventories Jan/Jan final (1000ET).
  • Fedspeak: Powell’s testimony to the House (1000ET), Daly keynote address (1200ET), Fed’s Beige Book (1400ET) and Kashkari (1615ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
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  • Cash Tsy yields are 0.5-1.5bp higher today, pulling further off the decline seen after the US ISM services miss but still well within yesterday’s range. UK fiscal speculation and Chinese easing expectations have helped set the early narrative.
  • Attention now shifts to Powell’s semi-annual testimony, with data interest from JOLTS plus some spillover potential from the BoC decision.
  • TYM4 holds near the bottom of narrow ranges at 111-04 (- 05+) with cumulative volumes slightly below recent starts of sessions at 280k. Yesterday’s high of 111-15 cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA of 111-06, which if it holds would highlight a bullish reversal that could open 111-27 initially (50% retrace of Feb 1-23 bear leg).
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), ADP employment Feb (0815ET), JOLTS report Jan (1000ET, Wholesale sales/inventories Jan/Jan final (1000ET).
  • Fedspeak: Powell’s testimony to the House (1000ET), Daly keynote address (1200ET), Fed’s Beige Book (1400ET) and Kashkari (1615ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction (1130ET)