Free Trial

ZAR Holds its Ground as Commodities Surge, But Risks Emerge on Russia Stance

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.45% higher this morning, mirroring price action in the BBDXY.
  • The cross fell -0.84% yesterday mostly against the grain in EM as SA’s terms of trade soared on rising commodity prices – notably palladium, which is trading at a 7.5 month high on mass shortage concerns with Russia responsible for 40% of global supply.
  • Calls from the US embassy to revise SA’s abstention on condemning Ukraine is a concern if NATO countries look to punish those turning a blind eye with trade restrictions.
  • Trade with Russia makes up a mere R15.7bn vs R1.131tn with NATO countries, making the position ill-advised if the West turns its focus on SA in the coming weeks.
  • ZAR has been notably resilient this week due to the bid in commodities only depreciating by 0.67% vs the USD w/w, while many of its peers have suffered notable weakness with the effects being most acute in CEE FX.
  • USD/ZAR remains pegged within the 15.00-15.60 range between its 200 & 100/50 dmas as risk sentiment continues to fluctuate.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.1431, Sup2: 15.0603, Res1: 15.2911, Res2: 15.3663
  • Citi SA Terms of Trade


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.