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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

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  • USD/ZAR trades +0.20% at the open, tracking price action in the BBDXY for the most part.
  • As expected, yesterday's dovish SARB outcome precipitated a dovish repricing higher in USD/ZAR, with price action retesting 14.7583 resistance.
  • While the wording of the statement was little changed, alluding to short-term CPI risks being tilted to the upside, it was the reduction of 2021 growth and 2022 avg CPI forecasts that drove the dovish message home.
  • This more contained forecast reinforced out base case scenario of rates unchanged out to 1Q22, despite calls from a number of international institutions for an expedited normalisation starting in September/November (MNI SARB Review out shortly).
  • For today, markets will continue to digest yesterday's meeting outcome before facing US PMIs this afternoon.
  • W/w USD/ZAR trades +2.24%, making ZAR one of the worst performing EM currencies this week. Intraday Sup1: 14.6577, Sup2: 14.5753, Res1: 14.7898, Res2: 14.8727