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Zloty Little Changed, POLGBs Reverse Losses

PLN

EUR/PLN edges lower today but the broader sideways trend remains intact, with the pair happy to stabilise around the 4.45 figure over the past few weeks. The pair last deals at 4.4521, little changed on the day. Bulls look for gains towards the 50-EMA at 4.4816, while bears see Jul 4 low of 4.4138 as their initial target.

  • POLGBs have reversed initial losses and last trade 0.4-1.9bp richer across the curve. The Finance Ministry sold PLN8bn of POLGBs today, the top end of the pre-announced range, attracting demand for PLN12.6bn.
  • NBP's Wieslaw Janczyk said that it "seems fully justified to discuss whether there could be a cut" in interest rates in September or October. In his view, the magnitude of the first cut would likely be 25bp.
  • Poland's real retail sales fell 4.7% Y/Y in June after a 6.8% contraction in May versus -5.0% expected. Local sell-side desks expect a recovery in consumer demand as real wages are returning to growth.
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