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Zloty Outperforms Regional Peers Despite Quieter Start to the Week Across Markets

PLN
Stability in US yields and elevated global equity benchmarks continues to lend strength to the Polish zloty, which has gained 0.21% against the euro. Nevertheless, EURPLN remains well-contained within last week’s extremes amid a quieter session given the lack of global tier 1 data releases and the Chinese New Year holidays. Zloty outperformance also evident via PLNHUF, rising 0.17% on Monday and hovering just below Friday’s high of 90.20. PLNCZK is flat at typing but continues to trade near to the post-NBP/CNB highs overall.
  • The hawkish tone of last week's NBP rate decision and subsequent press conference failed to result in a breach of any key EURPLN technical levels, though a bear threat remains present. Attention is on 4.2935, the Dec 13 low and key support. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in September last year.
  • CPI data is the key release of the week on Thursday, where the Bloomberg survey currently sees headline inflation moderating from +6.2% y/y in December to +4.1% in January. Trade and current account data are on the docket tomorrow, while the preliminary reading of Q4-2023 GDP will be announced on Wednesday.
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