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10-Year CGB Yield Backs Towards '23 Low

CHINA RATES

China’s 10-Year generic benchmark yield measure hovers around 2.54%, with bond bulls hoping to force a break of the Aug ’23 low (2.536%). A break of the August low would expose the ‘20 low (2.467%).

  • Expedited expectations re: monetary easing (aided by coverage of speculation in local news outlets), PBoC capital injections and the late '23 global core FI rally facilitated the richening seen since early December.
  • Any pullbacks seen in the early rounds of ’24 dealing have been much shallower than that witnessed in core global FI markets, as local policy expectations help underpin, along with the softer-than-expected run of official PMI readings (which generated more attention than the firmer-than-expected Caixin PMIs).

Fig.1: China 10-Year Government Bond Yield (%)

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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