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10Y Breakeven Unwinds Move Lower, Back At Post-Powell Level

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  • 10Y Breakeven Unwinds Move Lower, Back At Post-Powell Level
  • The 10Y breakeven has unwound all of today’s move lower, which had earlier been accelerated by payrolls, up 5.5bps from the session low to sit at 2.88%.
  • This is marginally above where it was after Powell’s presser, although in some consolation for the Fed it means that nearly all the 14.5bp rise in nominal yields since then has all been from real yields.
  • 10Y real yields pull back to +18bps having moved into positive territory early this week for the first time since the Mar’20 spike.
  • Putting that breakeven rate into perspective though, it’s close to the average seen since early March and down from above 3% last week.


10Y nominal yield (white), breakeven (yellow) and real yields (green)Source: Bloomberg

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