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2024 Fed Rates See Net Climb Despite Softer Data

STIR
  • Slightly softer than expected US data in the ISM mfg survey (including a miss for prices paid) and JOLTS helped dent an earlier rise in Fed Funds implied rates, but they still hold gains on the day. Moves are more notable for 2H24, as has been the case recently with near-term meetings steadfast with an eye on Friday’s payrolls.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +4bp Sep (-0.5bp), +9.5bp Nov to 5.425% terminal (+0.5bp).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 4bp to Dec’23 (unch from yesterday close), 53bp to Jun’24 (from 53bp) and 126bp to Dec’24 (125bp) in a reversal of a mild build in cut pricing at heading into the start of the US session.
  • Tomorrow sees no scheduled Fedspeak after Goolsbee's ('23 voter) further dovish remarks today, with attention instead likely on ADP employment.
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