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2Y Yields Through Recent Highs On Jobs

CANADA
  • The far stronger than expected employment report has seen 2Y GoC yields extend an earlier move to be up 7.5bps on the day to 1.621%, through last month’s high of 1.609%.
  • This sees 2s10s flatten 3.5bps to 35bps in a partial reversal of the recent steepening in the curve.
  • One area preventing a more aggressive flattening is that even though stronger than expected, hourly wage growth of 3.3% Y/Y is relatively subdued considering the strength in the rest of the report.
  • Of note, the unemployment rate of 5.5% is just 0.1pt above the low of 5.4% from May’19 whilst the participation rate bounced back to December’s 56.4%, just 0.2pts below levels immediately prior to the pandemic. Total employment is nearly 2% than prior to the pandemic.

GoC Yields And 2s10s SpreadSource: Bloomberg

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