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5s30s In Race To Zero With Treasuries

CANADA
  • GoCs have twist flattened on the day, with another sizeable flattening in 5s30s space as 5Y yields rise +2.5bps and 30Y yields fall -1.5bps.
  • 5s30s of 13bps is back at Feb-2020 levels and close to the Dec-2019 low of zero, having only been lower when it was inverted in 2007 (ignoring the spike lower to -19bps on Mar 9, 2020).
  • Treasuries have seen a similar flattening, taking 5s30s below pre-pandemic flats and to the lowest since 2007, at the peak of the hiking cycle and not the start of one.
  • This seems unlikely to change materially barring accelerated run-off plans from the BOC and Fed to push longer-end yields higher.

Source: Bloomberg

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