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6.8000 Within Sight

CNH

USD/CNH finished Friday's session around 6.8300 and is slightly softer in the first part of trading today, last near 6.8280. The currency benefited from broad based USD weakness, although didn't outperform these trends. The CNY NEER finished down slightly at the end of last week (-0.05% to 126.12 (J.P. Morgan Index). This leaves us only slightly down from multi-month highs.

  • With USD/CNY also below its simple 200-day MA (6.8317, versus Friday's close of 6.8280), we suspect the next downside target for both pairs will be the 6.8000 level.
  • A PBoC official stated that China growth will be back on track soon, with more financial support for households and the private sector.
  • Mobility indicators are recovering, although other higher frequency indicators of consumption and house sales aren't showing strong recovery signs yet.
  • Officials also stated the 2yr crackdown on the tech sector is complete. The Golden Dragon index fell 0.76% in US trading on Friday, although was still +13.60% higher for the week.
  • On the data front, aggregate finance figures should print at some stage this week (9-15 Jan is the release window), while Inflation outcomes print on Thursday and then trade on Friday.
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