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75bp Edges Back On The Table For ECB In Dec

STIR

Terminal hike pricing for the ECB and BoE reversed higher Friday after the strong US jobs report did likewise for Fed rates.

  • ECB terminal is seen 2.83% forJun 2023, up 10bp on the day; 56bp hike is now priced in Dec (around 24% of a 75bp hike, after touching post-Oct lows of 12% earlier in the session).
  • Similar Dec hike pricing for the BoE (55bp, or 20% chance of 75bp as opposed to 50bp), though this was steady vs Thursday. BoE terminal jumped over 10bp today, to 4.66% in Sept 2023, basically reversing Thursday's dip.

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