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UK: Analysts at Nomura write that their UK view "differs from the consensus" in
terms of Brexit. Nomura are of the opinion that "within Q1 a transition deal
will be agreed". They go on to say that "while we do not expect Phase II
negotiations to be easy, we do expect the market to be much less sensitive to
headlines." With regards to forecasts Nomura expect "a significant shift higher
- They believe "that a time-limited transition arrangement [will be] agreed by
spring following which a free trade agreement [will come] into force in 2021."
"[Nomura] see economic growth settling around its current rate of 1.5% over the
coming years as weaker domestic demand is partly offset by stronger net
- With regards to inflation expectations Nomura's view is that it should return
"to target slowly".